http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55?format=rss Tribe.net. Local Connections http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#228b1ff0-2b98-429b-bfb3-44fbaea28098 That's scary shit. Couldn't we use something like a scalar wave interferometer to sway its course? I think the idea of a bomb being sent out to intercept it would be impractical. At least with longitudinal wave tech, getting an energy burst from point A to point B shouldn't be an issue. Geez, day after day my future becomes more uncertain.... I'm gonna crawl back into my mother's womb. See you guys later.................. Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:35:49 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#228b1ff0-2b98-429b-bfb3-44fbaea28098 !m@ 2006-01-21T00:35:49Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#854ae576-7ead-479a-a76d-ca8e00a3b0e9 We also need to remember that 700+ such objects are also perturbing each other's orbits, and that a comet or solar flare adds new variables. Sun, 08 Jan 2006 03:17:49 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#854ae576-7ead-479a-a76d-ca8e00a3b0e9 Orangeboxman 2006-01-08T03:17:49Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#758d8022-3f31-4f21-a478-679f0b40f4e4 For those interested in keepng track here is a great site. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/orbits/ Thu, 05 Jan 2006 15:06:02 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#758d8022-3f31-4f21-a478-679f0b40f4e4 Lazarus 2006-01-05T15:06:02Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#79299319-1371-452b-b61a-b87a83a5c1cc < Either wa, we seem to be betting IT ALL that this thing won't hit us.> I think the problem is that nobody is betting anything. Nobody carea about this. Nobody will until it happens once then the politicians will care. If there is anybody left too care. Anyway maybe the Chinese can help. REmember when NASA was supposed to get the suttle working in time to boost skylab to a higher orbit? Remember when it laned in australia? THe US is so far behind in the thought process or even the scientific ability to do anything about this. Wed, 04 Jan 2006 06:42:13 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#79299319-1371-452b-b61a-b87a83a5c1cc B 2006-01-04T06:42:13Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#2e0937c7-c8ea-4210-ad89-0fec24215ecc Oops, sorry - my bad :-P Sat, 31 Dec 2005 01:32:58 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#2e0937c7-c8ea-4210-ad89-0fec24215ecc $item.owner.firstName 2005-12-31T01:32:58Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#0e7fc79b-d1ea-4ae2-8756-91df756e6b35 Either wa, we seem to be betting IT ALL that this thing won't hit us. By comparison, whatever it would take to starting pushing some of these objects awy must always be a bargain. Divide the value of the Earth by about 5000 and you get a mathematical break-even point on the cost-benefit thing. Surely, even pushing ALL known objects away would cost us far less than that. Wed, 28 Dec 2005 03:02:40 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#0e7fc79b-d1ea-4ae2-8756-91df756e6b35 Orangeboxman 2005-12-28T03:02:40Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#ebe3a596-cc40-4931-b030-bb581b1725c5 I think we have a mix up of terms here. When talking about odds small means more likely to happen and high odds less likely. That is what I meant by small. Like betting on a horse with 1 in 3 odds. It's the favorite. So I think in stellar terms 1 in 5000 + is so far the favorite. Tue, 27 Dec 2005 06:41:35 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#ebe3a596-cc40-4931-b030-bb581b1725c5 B 2005-12-27T06:41:35Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#d183852b-6dde-43b1-864e-7ea9abd158c8 No, in stellar terms it's actually quite high, which is why we're talking about it. Mon, 26 Dec 2005 23:43:46 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#d183852b-6dde-43b1-864e-7ea9abd158c8 $item.owner.firstName 2005-12-26T23:43:46Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#6458ebba-e7d3-43e5-916d-dd6c94a24d6b <1 in 5,560> In stellar terms of potential impacts those are very small odds. Sun, 25 Dec 2005 15:32:05 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#6458ebba-e7d3-43e5-916d-dd6c94a24d6b B 2005-12-25T15:32:05Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#ddf47cb4-a7fc-47ce-a87b-e30c7c3054bd I absolutely agree. Thu, 22 Dec 2005 23:51:07 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#ddf47cb4-a7fc-47ce-a87b-e30c7c3054bd $item.owner.firstName 2005-12-22T23:51:07Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#144a1550-abd9-458b-b7ac-20c658b991c4 >1 in 5,560. While those are very improbable odds, they don't seem extreme to me Even assuming that this is agreed to be too improbable to warrant an immediate mission to push it out of the way for its own sake, it's a great opportunity to test the technology for doing so in similar scenarios. We should jump at it, really. Thu, 22 Dec 2005 21:08:58 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#144a1550-abd9-458b-b7ac-20c658b991c4 Orangeboxman 2005-12-22T21:08:58Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#79f8a02c-04a4-49a5-9e46-b137e17537e9 As of September 2005, Apophis has an estimated impact-probability of 1 in 5,560. While those are very improbable odds, they don't seem extreme to me -- enough to send a shiver down my spine. Thu, 22 Dec 2005 04:37:48 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#79f8a02c-04a4-49a5-9e46-b137e17537e9 $item.owner.firstName 2005-12-22T04:37:48Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#fa87711b-8795-474d-9563-a201fe3517ac One more reason we'll have to invade Iran. Thu, 22 Dec 2005 03:12:51 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#fa87711b-8795-474d-9563-a201fe3517ac Orangeboxman 2005-12-22T03:12:51Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#3d064a7f-47f7-4f25-a6ac-c0dc7d37d426 From the Wikipedia... ------------------------------------------------------- Possible impact effects It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant. However, the initial reports resulted in widespread discussion on many Internet forums, including armchair speculation about exactly where Apophis (then known only as 2004 MN4) would hit and what would happen when it did. NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it impacted Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT (114,000 times the energy from the nuclear bomb Little Boy, dropped by the United States on Hiroshima, Japan). A more refined later estimate was 870 megatons (which is still around 65,500 times the energy of the bomb mentioned above). The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons. The exact effects of any impact would have varied based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would have been extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would have been unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the precipitation of an impact winter. Based on the predicted time of impact (0.89 of a day, or about 21:20 UTC) and the fact that the asteroid would be approaching the Earth from outside of its orbit, the impact was likely to occur in the Eastern Hemisphere (time zones UTC +3 to UTC +10). Any potential impact would have occurred at a velocity of 12.59 km/s Wed, 21 Dec 2005 14:05:46 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#3d064a7f-47f7-4f25-a6ac-c0dc7d37d426 Kenneth 2005-12-21T14:05:46Z http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#32734177-44da-4405-a66e-fd3fa98c4696 t's called Apophis. It's 390m wide. And it could hit Earth in 31 years time Scientists call for plans to change asteroid's path. Developing technology could take decades. Entire article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,14493,1660485,00.html Thu, 15 Dec 2005 17:24:20 GMT http://existentialrisks.tribe.net/thread/537d42c4-c710-4c3c-a1b9-a3856813ec55#32734177-44da-4405-a66e-fd3fa98c4696 $item.owner.firstName 2005-12-15T17:24:20Z